Harrison Barnes: The Prestige

Last month, I wrote a piece on Harrison Barnes and his “decision” to join the NBA or to return to North Carolina for his sophomore season.  In the post, I presented the theory that the decision had been made well in advance, it was just a matter of timing to build suspense and intrigue around his announcement to return.  From the comments section, it was clear how UNC fans felt about my spot-on analysis of their manufactured hero …

“I can’t believe you guys are STILL obsessed with Barnes. The more you talk about him the more power he has over you and your fan base. Real talk, let it go.”

“You are just a bitter duke fan, you need to get over it, every kid plays the same game including all the players that have gone to duke. cry me a river.”

“Lets face facts, you’re mad because Barnes chose UNC over Duke and right now Duke’s future doesn’t look terribly bright.”

Let’s put an end to this foolishness right now, Tarheels.  To do so, I’m going to paraphrase the great Aaron Sorkin’s brilliant screen play from “The Social Network” to summarize my feelings about him.  Harrison Barnes is probably going to go through life thinking that a lot of people don’t like him because he’s a Tarheel.  I want him to know, from the bottom of my heart, that won’t be true.  It will be because he’s an asshole.

Jim Young from The ACC Sports Journal, and one of my favorite bloggers out there, posted his thoughts on the Barnes’ announcement and included the following statement:

When John Henson and Tyler Zeller announced their plans to return, but Barnes had still not given any word about his decision, the cynics came out in full force.  Their line of thinking: Barnes already knows what he wants to do, but he’s going to string this thing out so he can create maximum drama and exposure.  That theory falls apart, though, when you consider that this announcement was done with very little fanfare, via a Monday morning press release.

Jim’s absolutely right, there was no production, no “fanfare”.  But what was he going to do?  Pack 17,000 fans into Kenan stadium and shock everyone by announcing his return on the big screen?  Who does that???  No, it wasn’t about the method of delivery, Jim.  It’s about the timing.  Not one response to Zeller and Henson’s announcement went published without its own paragraph dedicated to Harrison Barnes.  Even though it was always a foregone conclusion that Barnes would return with his two teammates, there was nothing to be gained by being one-third of the returning group.  To milk every last drop from this announcement, Tarheel fans needed to doubt him. 

Late last week on InsideCarolina.com’s premium forums, the respected “insiders” were all hinting towards a change of heart from Barnes that would lead him to choose NBA riches over his Tarheel legacy.  Dennis Marshall, Kendall Marshall’s father and message-board legend wannabe, joined the act by tweeting “Just heard something a little while ago that numbed me. I once heard a famous phrase…”money talks”. True statement.”  As with all posts from Twitter, Marshall’s tweet may have not had anything to do with Barnes’ announcement, but judging from his childish involvement with message board hijinx in the past and coupled with the timing of these “bombs” being dropped to subscribers of InsideCarolina.com, it just makes all too much sense.  False information was being leaked to UNC fans, or perhaps even to UNC “insiders” to perpetuate the facade that Barnes was suffering through this difficult decision.  There was no romance involved in Zeller and Henson’s announcement.  With Barnes, it had to be another chapter in his legend. 

I’ll break down exactly what happened with Barnes by using another one of my favorite films of all time, Christopher Nolan’s “The Prestige”, as told through one of the most important speeches in the movie:

Every great magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called “The Pledge”. The magician shows you something ordinary: a deck of cards, a bird or a man. He shows you this object. Perhaps he asks you to inspect it to see if it is indeed real, unaltered, normal. But of course… it probably isn’t. The second act is called “The Turn”. The magician takes the ordinary something and makes it do something extraordinary. Now you’re looking for the secret… but you won’t find it, because of course you’re not really looking. You don’t really want to know. You want to be fooled. But you wouldn’t clap yet. Because making something disappear isn’t enough; you have to bring it back. That’s why every magic trick has a third act, the hardest part, the part we call “The Prestige”.

The Pledge:

Harrison Barnes will play in the NBA someday, and will likely be a very good player in the league.  Harrison Barnes is also a very smart, business savvy young man.  That “someday” is not the 2011-12 season as Harrison has aspects of his game that need improvement before going against better competition than he’s facing at UNC, and his brand is certainly not going to flourish in an empty gym somewhere while the NBA season is on hold for the lockout.  The decision itself was a no-brainer.  The best place for Harrison Barnes was going to be at UNC next year.  But where’s the show?  Where’s the drama?  Where is the talk of building a legacy?  And that takes us to …

The Turn:

“Wait, why didn’t Harrison just announce he’s coming back?  His teammates just did, and they had the exact same decision to make.  I thought he was definitely coming back.  It makes sense for him to come back, right?”  Doubt begins to creep in a bit.  Pre-season rankings start being tossed about by the pundits with Kentucky as a sure-fire #1 team … unless Harrison Barnes returns to UNC, that is.  Some anxiety begins to creep in among the Tarheel faithful.  “He HAS to come back, we’re a lock for the title if he comes back.  Why isn’t he just coming back?”  More doubt.  More anxiety.  InsideCarolina.com starts reporting that he’s deciding to leave for the NBA.  Sources who were once sure that Barnes was returning saw their deadlines for an announcement come and go.  The only official word coming from the UNC Basketball Banquet is from Shirley Barnes saying that Harrison was still agonizing over his decision.  And Shirley Barnes is always honest, right?  No announcement the Friday following the banquet, InsideCarolina.com message board insiders are confirming Barnes is gone, and Dennis Marshall hammers out a disgusted tweet, “money talks”.  He’s going to the NBA.

The Prestige:

Barnes announces that he’s returning to school for his sophomore year.  Now, FINALLY, we can label the Tarheels as early favorites to win the NCAA championship.  FINALLY we can talk about Barnes and his legacy at UNC.  FINALLY we can talk about how mature Barnes is, and how great this is for the college game.  In the classic style of all great fish-tales, we can talk of how Barnes turned down the #1 pick in the NBA draft to return to UNC, completely ignoring/forgetting that he wasn’t ever going to be the first pick.  All of the stories and blogs and tweets we’ve been saving for the past three weeks can FINALLY be distributed to the masses.  The wait is over.  Thank you, Harrison Barnes.  Thank you for coming back next year.  In the end it was his love for UNC that won out over his dream of playing in the NBA.  Barnes continues to follow in the footsteps of his hero, Michael Jordan.  It’s all so clear now, bravo, Mr. Barnes.

Excuse me for not applauding.  I know what’s behind the curtain.

The British Are Coming?

In the recent weeks, more news of strengthened American ownership in the English Premier League has been a hot topic as LeBron James is now part owner of Liverpool FC (already an American owned superclub), and Arsenal FC is on the verge of being fully controlled by Yanks as well.  Here’s a look back at a February post discussing the opportunity that English clubs have to further tap into the American economy in the face of impending work stoppages in the NFL and the NBA.  Follow me on Twitter at @thedevilwolf for more.

 

American sports fans are still holding out hope that players and owners reach an accord to avoid the biggest work stoppage in sports history as both the NBA and the NFL appear to be on a collision course with impending lockouts.  Conversations across radio stations and message boards are buzzing about what needs to be done to avoid this disaster, and should both lockouts occur, discussions will shift from the negotiations towards beginning to address the gaping hole that will be left behind in the sports calendar.  While traditions like fantasy football and basketball could never have a suitable substitute, ultimately for sports fans, the NFL and NBA are surprisingly expendable.

Based on the below calendar, lockouts in the NFL and NBA will have little impact on competing professional leagues looking to climb up the ladder in terms of fan interest and attention.  Major League Baseball, the former national pastime, has lived throughout the summer months without rival for years and will continue to do so should a lockout occur.  America’s other summer league, Major League Soccer, has carved out a niche audience that has resulted in some positive attendance figures for the league, but the draw to American professional soccer still lies in the game-day atmosphere and has not translated into television viewership.  The biggest potential winners from a NBA/NFL lockout would be their collegiate counterparts and the NHL.

 

 

Collegiate football and basketball are already billion dollar industries and have millions of fans both buying tickets and tuning in on television.  With the absence of an NFL schedule, expect to CBS and FOX to leverage their contracts with the SEC, Big 12 and PAC-10 respectively to move marquis games to Sunday afternoons in order to maintain advertising revenue, and expect ESPN to maintain their Monday Night Football time slot for their college football game of the week.  While a perfect fit for the schedule, the networks and schools will have a short timeframe to make this happen as the decision deadline for the NFL will give them short notice to change schedules and to coordinate venues.  Cashing in on college basketball will be much easier as schedules are not announced until later in the year, and there is already a co-existance of NBA and NCAA basketball games within the schedule which means less of an opportunity to change around dates.

The biggest question within North America will be if the NHL can capitalize on their “two man advantage”.  Gary Bettman has shown the ability to think outside of the box when it comes to rules changes, all-star game formats, financial management, etc., but has lacked the skill of a David Stern to understand how to successfully position hockey within the American sporting culture.  Can the NHL move a game into NBC’s Sunday night prime-time slot?  Can the NHL negotiate with ESPN to have the “leader” buy a package of games from Versus?  Can Sportscenter show America that the NHL is still playing games even though Sidney Crosby is sidelined with injury?  My guess is that hockey will capitalize in ticket sales more-so than in television revenue and attention as teams will schedule more Sunday afternoon games that would traditionally be more well-attended than a weeknight game.  Hockey’s biggest obstacle will likely be the stubbornness of existing hockey fans to welcome new novice fans to the sport.  Here in Carolina, ten years in including two Stanley Cup finals, an NHL draft and an NHL all-star game, “Caniacs” are still treated as if they don’t belong.  That type of culture does not win over your curious channel-surfer.

So who COULD be the biggest winner from an NFL/NBA lockout?  The most popular sporting league in the world … the Barclay’s English Premier League.  Soccer???  Soccer could replace professional football and basketball in America?  No, of course not.  But hear me out …

First, the season runs parallel with the NBA and NFL with the start of the league season in August and the final matches in May.

 

 

Second, the desire is there.  Much like America sat as a massive, untapped resource of wealth and prosperity before colonization, American sports fans are the golden goose for the EPL.  Third, they’ve already brainwashed your children.  Youth soccer has more registered participants in America than any other sport, and America has more registered youth players than another country in the world.  The most prominent clubs have already infiltrated our borders by running camps, coach exchange programs, travel tours, and even through partnering with entire youth clubs and leagues.  Raleigh’s CASL, one of the largest youth organizations in America, has partnered with London’s Chelsea FC, one of the EPL’s richest clubs.  And lastly, ESPN is already on board the bandwagon by broadcasting between one and three league matches each week in high definition, and have signed on to broadcast the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA European Championships as well.  And on the heels of the ratings bonanza and national sensation of the US National Team’s performance at the 2010 World Cup, US players are starting to get signed by EPL clubs joining fellow Yanks like Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard who are already mainstays within the league.  Javier Hernandez, aka Chicharito (which roughly translates to ‘little ratings machine’), is the LeBron James of Mexico and is playing for Manchester United, the richest professional sports team on the planet.  The EPL has done a wonderful job of growing a market within the US, which will have much stronger footing than an NHL who would be in a position of simply trusting themselves on American sports fans.

But is Raider Nation really going to tune into a fixture between Newcastle and Stoke City?  Don’t EPL games come on at 8AM EST?  And what the hell is a fixture?  Here is where the FA (Football Association – the governing body of English soccer and ‘owner’ of the EPL and its lesser divisions) needs to think creatively – and they’re masters at doing just that.

Football fans in the US certainly wouldn’t simply shift gears from the NFL to the EPL by any means, and more than likely those hardcore football fans will never watch or attend a soccer match in their lifetime.  But Americans have proven time and time again that they will buy tickets to see elite soccer teams play.  The World Football Classic in 2009 sold over a million tickets, including selling out Cowboys Stadium.  MLS teams are fighting over the opportunity to bring in EPL teams for friendlies (scrimmages) held during the EPL pre-season and during the actual MLS season because they’re guaranteed sell outs.  If American fans are paying to see the stars of Arsenal play 15 uninspired minutes against FC Dallas, could you imagine the buzz surrounding a Manchester City vs. Fulham league match in Dallas?  And can you imagine the money those two clubs would make from farming just one of their league matches overseas to the States?  A 2PM kickoff in the States would mean a prime-time kickoff in England as well, and to create a win all around, empty stadiums in the US would now be selling tickets to a big-time event.

To continue their conquest of American sports fans, it’s the right move for the EPL, and it’s the perfect time.  Will soccer ever become a national passion in the US?  Doubtful.  But for every 3 American fans who crack “orange slices at halftime” jokes, there is one who will buy a ticket, and a scarf, and a jersey, and a spot for their kid at summer soccer camp.  The iron is certainly hot for the striking.

 

We Say Goodbye, You Say Hello

Follow DevilWolf on Twitter … @thedevilwolf

Goodbye Kyrie.  Hello Coach Gottfried.

Today we’ll examine the changing of the guard in two programs, how one was handled brilliantly, how the other was handled poorly, and how both programs will arguably be better off in the long run.

Kyrie Irving Enters the Draft

This was a no brainer from the moment Kyrie stepped foot on campus.  Despite a record day of traffic to the blog (up 150% over the 2nd highest day) about the “Kyrie Irving Letter”, there is literally nothing to discuss here regarding the decision to go to the NBA.  The discussion, at this point, centers around the return on investment that Duke received from recruiting a point guard that played just 11 games as a Blue Devil.  A narrow view suggests that a Sweet 16 exit and a 2nd place regular season finish in the ACC was a disappointment for a team that entered the year as the defending champions with hopes of a 5th title in its crosshairs.  Even the way Duke went out with All-American Nolan Smith struggling through a tough shooting night against Arizona sparked criticism of Kyrie’s return to the lineup following his freak turf toe injury that sidelined him for the majority of the season.  But in the long run, expect the Kyrie Experiment to pay off huge returns for the Duke basketball program.

It’s been widely reported that following the 2004 early departure of Luol Deng and the decision of Shaun Livingston to completely skip his collegiate career by entering the NBA out of high school that Coach K and his staff shifted their recruiting focus to more three and four-year type players.  It also needs to be understood that the majority of the sportswriting world doesn’t follow recruiting closely, and most hindsight reviews of recruiting make the false assumptions that coaches always sign who they target.  Between 2005 and 2010, Coach K made offers to many projected “one and done” players, but with no success.  The perception was that one year players had no place at Duke; a perception mainly fed by the release of Kris Humphries from his letter of intent in 2004 to pursue his year of college elsewhere, and by the extended careers of alleged “sure-fire” one year players like Josh McRoberts and Shavlik Randolph.  But even as recently as 2009, Duke was heavily involved with John Wall until the final decision to go to Kentucky.

This perception, as with any in college basketball recruiting, picked up steam behind closed doors on the recruiting trail.  UNC guard Dexter Strickland gave a glimpse into the negative recruiting pitch of his coach Roy Williams when he spoke of his former teammate’s decision to attend Duke.  Strickland commented, “I think it’s a good pick for him, I just hope that system doesn’t change who he is as a player.”  I wonder where Dexter become such an expert on “that system” …

Regardless of where this perception began and how it continued to grow, the commitment of Kyrie Irving to do Duke did a lot to change that.  As with most offensive systems, Coach K’s is at its best with an elite point guard, a the fact that a well-liked and well-respected high school point guard committed speaks volumes across the AAU circuit.  You almost have to wonder … if Duke had not have recruited John Wall, would Duke have gotten Kyrie Irving?  If Duke had not have signed Kyrie Irving, would Duke have signed Austin Rivers and Quinn Cook?  And so on.  That’s how recruiting success works … you earn a win with a guy that people look up to and respect, and it begins a chain reaction of getting better access to more players in the circuit.  If that player has a bad experience at your school, you’re in trouble.  Having said that, Kyrie had a fantastic experience.

The injury, even though it kept him on the sidelines and out of the highlight reels for the season, may have turned into a blessing in disguise for Duke’s program.  It’s every NBA prospect’s biggest fear about the one and done rule … what happens if I go to college and get hurt?  Will it hurt my stock?  Will my coach rush me back?  Do I have to say a 2nd year?  Duke passed each of these tests with flying colors.  Even though UNC bloggers and pundits seemed to have a problem with it, the highly publicized rehab work from www.dukeblueplanet.com to the morning TV show “The Doctors” put it out there for all to see: Duke is the best place in the world to get injured.  In fact, I wouldn’t look past the issues that UNC folks had with Duke “exploiting Kyrie’s injury”, I’d take it as proof of its effectiveness as a recruiting tool. 

While Kyrie was recovering, Duke was patient.  Even the final decision to return to the court for the NCAA tournament was entirely on Kyrie’s shoulders; never once did K push for a rushed return to the court.  The downside to returning at all is that Kyrie could send one of two messages to NBA scouts.  Either he’s back and 100%, or he’s damaged goods.  Kyrie’s performance in the NCAA tournament could have cost him millions of dollars, and Duke handled that risk perfectly.  Following the season, there was no talk of pros and cons being provided by the coaching staff.  There was one decision and one decision only for Kyrie to make as a projected top 3 pick in the NBA draft. 

The impact of Kyrie’s legacy as a Duke player will not be felt for a few years, and much of it still hinges on his success as an NBA player.  But looking down the road, Kyrie Irving does more good for Duke in the long run playing next season in the NBA instead of playing in Durham as a Blue Devil.  Does it hurt losing the team’s best player?  Obviously.  But Cook, Thornton, Rivers and Curry are pretty damn good band aids. 

NC State Welcomes Gottfried

Gottfried, in my opinion, is a good hire for NC State.  He won me over in the press conference with one short statement in response to Debbie Yow firing both guns in the air shouting “We’re back, baby!” by answering, “Slow down, Debbie.”  BRILLIANT.  At that moment, I knew State had hired a guy who not only fully understands that State fans needed to hear their AD putting the rest of the world on notice, but who also fully understands that it’s the LAST thing that NC State needs to say.  Yow made a good move in hiring Gottfried, but it’s a shame it was sandwiched between two of the dumbest moves I’ve ever seen an AD make.

It all started with a letter.  Just days after becoming a huge fan of how Debbie Yow was handling the coaching search privately and on her own terms while being baited over and over again by the media to pull back the curtains, she did the unthinkable.  She sent a “don’t panic” letter to NC State fans and boosters who, from the outside looking in, weren’t panicking at all.  Two phrases from her letter, “square one” and “poor shape”, contributed to an epic reversal of control in this search.  Not only did she suddenly open the curtains to her office, she didn’t clean up before she let company in.  The job that she’d touted as one of the best posts available was now suddenly considered to be in “poor shape”?  And all of this was on the heels of discussions regarding a some general reluctance to work for Yow.  To me, it came off as a desperate attempt to deflect the blame.

I wish I could remember the film, I believe it’s “The Kingdom” but don’t quote me on that.  In the movie, there’s a politician who’s giving advice to someone and recounts a story where his predecessor gave him two letters to open if he ever found himself with the world closing in on him.  The first letter said, “Blame me, the guy who came before you.”  The second letter said “Tell the guy taking your job to write two letters.”  That’s how I saw this move by Yow.  Let’s make sure to blame the guy we just fired.  But the worst part of the letter … IT WASN’T NECESSARY!!!   Yow was sitting beside her coach at the press conference less than 48 hours after releasing her letter.  Now Gottfried appears like a rush hire, a last-ditch effort.  Bad move in my opinion.

I’m not even going to talk about Yow’s “J’Accuse” to Gary Williams during the press conference.  That’s another post for another day.  But I’m going to talk about the mistake of managing the team’s PR during the press conference.  Yow retained Monte Towe to maintain contact with recruits and to be available for the current players.  How does his responsibility not include coaching his players on how to appear at the press conference?  The team trickled in, one by one, on their own.  As one local sports personality put it, CJ Leslie’s body language appeared that he was doing everyone a favor by showing up to hear his new coach.  Ryan Harrow appeared disinterested and was probably researching new schools on his shiny new iPad while Gottfried spoke.  Those players should have arrived together, dressed in suits or jackets and ties, and sitting attentively as their new coach addressed the media.  I’m sorry, but when the knock on your team is that the players are soft and uncoachable, you’re giving the message that maybe changing coaches wasn’t the right move to make in the first place.  Towe, as an extension of Debbie Yow, should have been aware of that optic at that moment.  Extremely disappointing that NC State lost an opportunity to really come off as winners in the press conference.

At least Gottfried appears to be the kind of leader who will take control over behavior like that.

Irving, Barnes Have Tough Decisions to Make

It’s officially hand-wringing season for the majority of college basketball fans… the month-or-so between your favorite team’s last game and the deadline to declare for the NBA draft.  It’s the time of year that controls how a fan views the off-season.  Will you be in a deep depression, sitting silently by yourself looking down at the replica jersey of your favorite early-entry defection trying to remember the good times you had watching them play while not wanting to imagine how life can go on without them?  Or will you be celebrating the return of your team’s savior by saving a place on the wall to add one more framed national championship Sports Illustrated cover next April?  It’s the Groundhog Day of college basketball … if your superstar underclassman sees his NBA shadow and is frightened back into his dorm room for another year, it means two more weeks of car flags flying proudly around town.  Despite the fact that there are as many champions who lost key players to the draft the previous year as there are champions who returned all of their superstars, it’s one of the most intriguing times of year for all fans.

In this area, there are five key figures to keep an eye on … Kyrie Irving and Mason Plumlee from Duke, and Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller from UNC.  At this moment, the general consensus is that Kyrie has finished his collegiate career, Mason Plumlee is undecided, and the entire trio of Tarheels will return for 2011-12.  Also at this moment, no one outside of those five individuals, their families and their coaches have any idea what they’re going to do – and potentially they don’t know either.  The news on Irving stems from one person, ESPN’s Chad Ford.  Ford stated in an ESPN insider article that Irving was “one foot out of the door” while Mason Plumlee was “50/50”.  The context of the article was Ford’s opinion, and was not based on any conversations he’d had with the players themselves.  Since then, CBS, Yahoo, and numerous mainstream blogs have picked up the story with “ESPN reporting that Irving is going pro” as the backbone of their articles.  This, in a nutshell, is how journalists cover this time of year. 

On the UNC side of things, the story gets a little more humorous.  Apparently the rumors of Zeller, Barnes and Henson’s package decision to return stems from a report from a student who claims to have been at Tyler Zeller’s apartment when Barnes and Henson came over to hang out.  Allegedly, Henson said “It’s time to talk about this decision, bra” and the three retired to Zeller’s bedroom to talk things over.  Unfortunately, we don’t have any more information because the storyteller “couldn’t hear too well because they were in Tyler’s room”, which led to him lamenting over what could have been when he said “I could have been an IC (www.insidecarolina.com) legend.”  Unfortunately, we will not be getting any further information out of the Chi O’s this weekend as they’ve asked their sorority sisters not to ask Kendall Marshall, Harrison Barnes and John Henson about their NBA plans at their formal this weekend.  This leads to another bit of speculation to ponder … why was Tyler Zeller not invited to the party?

Having said all of that, it’s my OPINION that Kyrie Irving will declare for the NBA draft, and that Plumlee, Barnes, Zeller and Henson will all return next season.  I will further clarify by stating that my OPINION is based entirely on the OPINIONS of others.  Cue the Duke fans freaking out about having Kyrie Irving for 11 games while Roy Williams was able to swindle money from Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton by hotboxing them into staying for three seasons, and cue the rosterbation from UNC fans looking through a lineup of 11 NBA players and planning their celebration of their 6th or 7th title (depending on which Tarheel fan you talk to).  As the decisions start being made public, two more hilarious items from this silly-season rear their ugly heads: the overnight change in player evaluation from fans, and the onslaught of early entry rule ideas.

So here’s how this is going to play out … if you ask a UNC fan today to evaluate Harrison Barnes, he’s a poor man’s Sean Elliot who needs to stay in college to become more than just a jumpshooter.  Duke fans think he’s a dynamic talent who should be a top 3 pick and would be absolutely foolish not to go take his place as the next Kevin Durant.  UNC fans feel like Kyrie Irving is the next Derrick Rose, while Duke fans have concerns about how Kyrie will hold up over an NBA season being so small and so out of shape from not playing.  If Barnes comes back, UNC fans are already polishing his Naismith Trophy while Duke fans are taking bets to see who from Roy Williams’ deep bench will transfer first.  Likewise if Irving returns, UNC fans become immediately concerned about Austin Rivers being able to get enough touches to make him happy while Duke fans are writing blog posts about the greatest backcourts in basketball history (coming to this site soon should Kyrie come back to Duke).  It’s the hilarious dance that fans do during this time of year.

And don’t get me started on the early entry opinions that will be thrown around ad nauseam following the conclusion of the championship game.  From the “baseball model” to the “hockey model” to the LeBron/Howard/Garnett model … ideas will be thrown around left and right.  Most of them not even feasible, all of them entirely uninformed and extremely biased.  The only fact you need to know about the early entry debate is this … it’s the NBA’s decision to make, and the decision will ALWAYS be what’s in the best interest of the NBA.  Talk all you’d like about how one-and-dones kill college basketball, or how “high school straight to the NBA” detracts young athletes from pursuing education.  It doesn’t matter.

Personally, I want to see as many kids stay for four years as possible because I like college basketball.  Specifically this season when the NBA is facing a likely work-stoppage, this could be college basketball’s time to shine.  If every underclassmen returned to school for the 2011-12 college season, you’d likely see three of the best teams ever assembled with the talent that Kentucky, UNC and Duke would have on their rosters.  The depth of talent would be legendary.  The worst part about college basketball these days is that we know the above scenario would never play out with all of those players returning.  The best part about college basketball these days … if it DID happen, it wouldn’t be shocking in the slightest if the championship was won by someone other than those three powerhouses.  So while you’re sitting on the edge of your seats over the next few weeks, living and dying with every rumor that gets posted, just remember the games still have to be played next year.  And for every ‘super-team’ that’s ever won a championship, there are two or three champions who came from nowhere to win.

The DevilWolf vs. The Black Falcon

If you’re short for time, I’m going to give you the quick summary of the following post in two short statements.  Harrison Barnes is an elite basketball talent.  He is also a fake.  A phony.  A comic book superhero whose story starts with a tear-jerking, inspirational Nike commercial celebrating the end of his famed career and works its way backwards to present day allowing Harrison to follow his plot line-by-contrived-line.  The hero’s name … The Black Falcon.  Or more accurately, The Black Fugazy.

During the Fall of his senior year at Ames High School, Harrison Barnes conducted one of the most intriguing recruiting sagas in college basketball history.  It had everything … the methodical creation of the Harrison Barnes persona, carefully crafted statements and deliberately placed false clues, twists and turns that are typically reserved for top football recruits to orchestrate their signing day spectacle.  Each word, each action, entirely premeditated.  Let’s be honest here, Duke, UNC, Kansas and Iowa State were never recruiting Harrison Barnes.  Harrison Barnes was recruiting all of us.

From both perspectives, Barnes was not the most important recruit for Duke or for UNC.  Roy Williams had collected enough front-court talent to not only survive the package-deal transfer of the Wear twins, but to provide his Tarheels with a legitimate strength against each and every opponent UNC faced this season.  At Duke, Mike Krzyzewski was returning Nolan Smith but likely losing Kyle Singler to the NBA, but had the depth at the wing position to fill Singler’s shoes with productive minutes from transfer Seth Curry and a Sophomore Andre Dawkins.  Both teams were in dire need of a point guard as Roy Williams was never able to fill the void left behind by Ty Lawson, and Duke had been running a two-year point guard by committee.  Looking from strictly a need-based viewpoint, Kendall Marshall and Kyrie Irving were the two most important pieces to the Duke & UNC puzzles.

But there sat Barnes, the #1 overall recruit in the entire class.  Widely considered to be a Duke lock, fans were touting Barnes as the next Shane Battier … the guy who was going to bring Duke back to the top of the college basketball mountain.  Roy Williams’ Tarheels were already perched atop that peak coming off of their 2008-09 NCAA championship, and Barnes was being talked about by UNC fans as a “luxury recruit”.  Perception said that Duke needed Barnes in the worst way to even have a chance to compete with UNC.  The recruiting stories were legendary, and what’s true and what’s fake at this point is both impossible to determine and completely irrelevant.  From stories of Barnes throwing a UNC t-shirt into a trashcan to him sneaking off to call Roy Williams from the bathroom while on his official visit to Duke, the fish tales were coming fast and furious.  Allegedly Barnes told K during the last in home visit “Save #40 for me, Coach”, and then later that night posed for pictures with Roy Williams in his UNC #40 jersey during a secret in home visit.  There was the famous story of the waiter in Chapel Hill who witnessed Coach K get a phone call from Harrison before hanging up in anger.  No one knew if any of this was ever real, but when a reporter asked Harrison Barnes what he thought of the stories, he broke character for a brief second to show us his laugh as if to say “I have all of you exactly where I want you.”

Harrison wasn’t picking a school based on basketball.  He said as much in his press conference as he spoke of building his brand.  Which team was it going to be in that Nike commercial 20 years from now?  Kansas?  The birthplace of college basketball?  Duke?  The model program and America’s “bad guy”?  Or North Carolina.  The house that Jordan built.  Which was going to be the best story?  In those terms, the UNC Tarheels were too good to pass up.

“They said I was going to be the next Jordan … (cue old highlights of Jordan during his UNC years playing along side of Harrison Barnes highlights) … they said I was going to be the next [insert name here of whatever superstar played for whichever team Barnes plays for in the NBA] … (cue superstar highlights along side NBA Harrison Barnes highlights) … instead, I was the first Harrison Barnes … who’s next?” … (cue the kids playing in the park or in their school gym, each saying “I’m next”, cut to the Black Falcon logo with the “Who’s next?” tagline) … and, cut.

That’s the exciting conclusion to the Harrison Barnes story.  His entire life working backwards from that 30 second TV ad.  That’s all you need to know about Harrison Barnes.  Each and every one of us is just a character in that commercial to him, a future customer.  If you don’t believe me on that, well, you’ve just fallen for his sales pitch harder than I have.  Buyer beware.

It’s easy to say that this is all just sour grapes that he didn’t pick the team I wanted him to pick on that Friday the 13th when he Skyped his commitment to Roy Williams.  Part of it certainly is, as Harrison Barnes would have been a tremendous addition to this year’s Duke team.  As a Duke fan, it was like a punch to the gut watching the press conference, confused when he stepped up to the podium and began dialing Roy Williams’ office.  Even more insulting was knowing that Coach K and his staff found out about Barnes’ decision the same way that I did … sitting in front of a computer, watching the press conference, waiting to see which team he chose.  And it wasn’t enough to put on a hat, or to pick up a card in front of him.  He had scheduled a Skype session with Coach Williams and the entire UNC team in one final orchestrated side show to end the saga of his recruitment.  The smug look on Roy’s face, the false surprise of being the coach Barnes’ would select, it was everything short of Coach Williams waving to the camera with “Hi Mike” written with a marker on his palm.  Here was a kid who, one second, was giving you his selfless, introspective side, giving such kind comments about each school in the running for his services, and the next showing his need for attention and his “all eyes on me” approach to living his life.  Duke has lost more recruits than its signed, and it never was painful to get the news of Boynton choosing Florida or even Wright choosing North Carolina.  Barnes knew the path to becoming a legend at UNC was to become hated at Duke.  For that moment, he succeeded.  He was an important recruit to begin with, but his commitment served as a death blow to Duke and as a validation of North Carolina as the king of Tobacco Road.  He rode the momentum of his charade of a decision making process through the summer All-star circuit and onto the First Team Pre-season All-America team, the first freshman ever to do so.  Barnes was the most hyped player coming into the 2010-11 basketball season, not based on success on the basketball court, but based on his successful conquest of the national basketball media.

To look at Harrison Barnes as a person and not as a basketball player is only telling half of the story.  Barnes struggled to live up to expectations at the start of the season, little of which had to do with his actual ability as a basketball player.  The hype was simply too much to overcome, but it was not a battle that Barnes would have to fight on his own.  Basketball pundits battled each other for the chance to explain away how they’d all been duped by an 18-year-old, the most laughable being Jay Bilas’ diatribe on “What if Harrison Barnes made one more shot each game?”  Complete with an ESPN graphic and all, Bilas angrily attacked those who dared to doubt Barnes’ ability (translation: Bilas’ ability to analyze talent) by proving that if Harrison Barnes was better, he’d be better.  As the freshman gained his legs and caught up to the speed of the college game, he played remarkably well on the offensive side of the ball.  A key to Barnes’ success was the emergence of Kendall Marshall, a fellow freshman who thrives on putting the spotlight on others versus a Junior Larry Drew who was determined to inexplicably keep the spotlight on himself.  Barnes began to hit big shots, game winning shots, and grew his persona as a player who lives for heroics.  Looking back to Harrison Barnes as a person, that’s not surprising that he has a real talent for hitting clutch shots … those are commercial moments.  No one remembers a shot in the first half, but everyone remembers the shot to win the game.

As a player, Barnes is an accurate shooter when he takes good shots and has a strong ability to finish around the rim.  When driven to, he’s a hard worker, and doesn’t shy away from personal challenges.  He’s got good size for a wing player and struggles to create his own shot off of the dribble except for a step back jump shot which can be deadly if you don’t know it’s coming.  He’d be a high draft pick right now, and he’ll continue to get better.

This brings us to the decision that Barnes, like all underclassmen, has to face right now.  Does he go to the NBA, which is the destination that his pre-written story ultimately takes him?  Or does he stay at North Carolina?  There is no doubt in my mind that he’ll be back for his sophomore season, and he’ll do it for the one reason that no one will talk about.  We’ll hear stories of how much he loves North Carolina, how he wants to win a championship, how he’s not ready to leave his teammates.  We’ll hear about how committed he is to academics, how he wants to grow as a leader.  Harrison Barnes will be back for one reason, and one reason only … there are many stars in the NBA, there are a handful in college basketball.  Barnes needs to be talked about.  He needs more highlights.  He needs more material for his biography.  He needs more stories about him dribbling alone for hours in the dark, vowing to never miss the shot again that he missed against Kentucky.  He needs more customers.  Barnes never was playing for an NBA contract, he’s playing for endorsements.  He’s playing for stock prices.  He’s playing for the love of the game, but that game is not basketball.  If he does decide to go to the NBA, it will be because he feels like his brand has matured enough to go to the next level.  It will not be because he’s always dreamed of playing in the NBA, or because he wants to win a ring.  Can Harrison Barnes move more units from the family store, or is it time to go public?  That’s what it comes down to.  What’s the next scene scheduled to be filmed?

And most of you are going to continue to fall for it, and you’ll line up in droves to buy what he’s selling.  Me?  I don’t buy fake merchandise.

Could Lockout Pave Way for British Invasion?

American sports fans are still holding out hope that players and owners reach an accord to avoid the biggest work stoppage in sports history as both the NBA and the NFL appear to be on a collision course with impending lockouts.  Conversations across radio stations and message boards are buzzing about what needs to be done to avoid this disaster, and should both lockouts occur, discussions will shift from the negotiations towards beginning to address the gaping hole that will be left behind in the sports calendar.  While traditions like fantasy football and basketball could never have a suitable substitute, ultimately for sports fans, the NFL and NBA are surprisingly expendable.

Based on the below calendar, lockouts in the NFL and NBA will have little impact on competing professional leagues looking to climb up the ladder in terms of fan interest and attention.  Major League Baseball, the former national pastime, has lived throughout the summer months without rival for years and will continue to do so should a lockout occur.  America’s other summer league, Major League Soccer, has carved out a niche audience that has resulted in some positive attendance figures for the league, but the draw to American professional soccer still lies in the game-day atmosphere and has not translated into television viewership.  The biggest potential winners from a NBA/NFL lockout would be their collegiate counterparts and the NHL.

Collegiate football and basketball are already billion dollar industries and have millions of fans both buying tickets and tuning in on television.  With the absence of an NFL schedule, expect to CBS and FOX to leverage their contracts with the SEC, Big 12 and PAC-10 respectively to move marquis games to Sunday afternoons in order to maintain advertising revenue, and expect ESPN to maintain their Monday Night Football time slot for their college football game of the week.  While a perfect fit for the schedule, the networks and schools will have a short timeframe to make this happen as the decision deadline for the NFL will give them short notice to change schedules and to coordinate venues.  Cashing in on college basketball will be much easier as schedules are not announced until later in the year, and there is already a co-existance of NBA and NCAA basketball games within the schedule which means less of an opportunity to change around dates.

The biggest question within North America will be if the NHL can capitalize on their “two man advantage”.  Gary Bettman has shown the ability to think outside of the box when it comes to rules changes, all-star game formats, financial management, etc., but has lacked the skill of a David Stern to understand how to successfully position hockey within the American sporting culture.  Can the NHL move a game into NBC’s Sunday night prime-time slot?  Can the NHL negotiate with ESPN to have the “leader” buy a package of games from Versus?  Can Sportscenter show America that the NHL is still playing games even though Sidney Crosby is sidelined with injury?  My guess is that hockey will capitalize in ticket sales more-so than in television revenue and attention as teams will schedule more Sunday afternoon games that would traditionally be more well-attended than a weeknight game.  Hockey’s biggest obstacle will likely be the stubbornness of existing hockey fans to welcome new novice fans to the sport.  Here in Carolina, ten years in including two Stanley Cup finals, an NHL draft and an NHL all-star game, “Caniacs” are still treated as if they don’t belong.  That type of culture does not win over your curious channel-surfer.

So who COULD be the biggest winner from an NFL/NBA lockout?  The most popular sporting league in the world … the Barclay’s English Premier League.  Soccer???  Soccer could replace professional football and basketball in America?  No, of course not.  But hear me out …

First, the season runs parallel with the NBA and NFL with the start of the league season in August and the final matches in May.

Second, the desire is there.  Much like America sat as a massive, untapped resource of wealth and prosperity before colonization, American sports fans are the golden goose for the EPL.  Third, they’ve already brainwashed your children.  Youth soccer has more registered participants in America than any other sport, and America has more registered youth players than another country in the world.  The most prominent clubs have already infiltrated our borders by running camps, coach exchange programs, travel tours, and even through partnering with entire youth clubs and leagues.  Raleigh’s CASL, one of the largest youth organizations in America, has partnered with London’s Chelsea FC, one of the EPL’s richest clubs.  And lastly, ESPN is already on board the bandwagon by broadcasting between one and three league matches each week in high definition, and have signed on to broadcast the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA European Championships as well.  And on the heels of the ratings bonanza and national sensation of the US National Team’s performance at the 2010 World Cup, US players are starting to get signed by EPL clubs joining fellow Yanks like Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard who are already mainstays within the league.  Javier Hernandez, aka Chicharito (which roughly translates to ‘little ratings machine’), is the LeBron James of Mexico and is playing for Manchester United, the richest professional sports team on the planet.  The EPL has done a wonderful job of growing a market within the US, which will have much stronger footing than an NHL who would be in a position of simply trusting themselves on American sports fans.

But is Raider Nation really going to tune into a fixture between Newcastle and Stoke City?  Don’t EPL games come on at 8AM EST?  And what the hell is a fixture?  Here is where the FA (Football Association – the governing body of English soccer and ‘owner’ of the EPL and its lesser divisions) needs to think creatively – and they’re masters at doing just that.

Football fans in the US certainly wouldn’t simply shift gears from the NFL to the EPL by any means, and more than likely those hardcore football fans will never watch or attend a soccer match in their lifetime.  But Americans have proven time and time again that they will buy tickets to see elite soccer teams play.  The World Football Classic in 2009 sold over a million tickets, including selling out Cowboys Stadium.  MLS teams are fighting over the opportunity to bring in EPL teams for friendlies (scrimmages) held during the EPL pre-season and during the actual MLS season because they’re guaranteed sell outs.  If American fans are paying to see the stars of Arsenal play 15 uninspired minutes against FC Dallas, could you imagine the buzz surrounding a Manchester City vs. Fulham league match in Dallas?  And can you imagine the money those two clubs would make from farming just one of their league matches overseas to the States?  A 2PM kickoff in the States would mean a prime-time kickoff in England as well, and to create a win all around, empty stadiums in the US would now be selling tickets to a big-time event.

To continue their conquest of American sports fans, it’s the right move for the EPL, and it’s the perfect time.  Will soccer ever become a national passion in the US?  Doubtful.  But for every 3 American fans who crack “orange slices at halftime” jokes, there is one who will buy a ticket, and a scarf, and a jersey, and a spot for their kid at summer soccer camp.  The iron is certainly hot for the striking.